Extended Weather Forecast
Useful Format

Here is a very useful form of extended weather forecast. Twice a day, every day, the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) issues forecasts for the next 15 days.

To better interpret and use weather forecasts, short term or extended, it helps to understand how weather works. To that end, I highly recommend Meteorology: An Introduction to the Wonders of the Weather!

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), the United States National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) collaborate in the NAEFS project since its creation in 2004.

You, the user, can choose in the panel of options located in the top part of the page (see link to the page below)...

  1. The issue day of the forecast (the day the forecasting process was launched using a chosen data set - 00 UTC or 12 UTC).

  2. The first and last day of the period you are interested in (within the next 15 days).

  3. The product type (more on this below).

Forecast Product Types

You can choose a forecast for any one of the following weather variables, for a chosen period of days ranging from one to 15 days:
  • Precipitation (mm)
  • Accumulation of precipitation (mm)
  • Surface wind speed (km/h)
  • Minimum surface temperature (°C)
  • Maximum surface temperature
  • Windchill

A Sample Output

To illustrate, here a sample screen snapshot of a NAEFS extended forecast giving the probability, in percent, of (user chosen product) precipitation exceeding 25 mm at least one day during the (user chosen) forecast period starting on October 18, 2008 and ending November 01, 2008.

Sample snapshot of NAEFS extended weather forecast.
Source: www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/produits_e.html

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